Jahan Dotson
WR
Atlanta Falcons
This is how WRs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Bears in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Tetairoa McMillan | 8 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 2 |  MIN | Jordan Addison | 5 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 3 |  PHI | Makai Lemon | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Garrett Wilson | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 5 |  GB | Matthew Golden | 7 | 6 | 123 | 0 | 20.3 |
| Average | 5.6 | 3.8 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 9.3 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 5.9 | ||
| High | 8 | 6 | 123 | 0 | 20.3 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jahan Dotson should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jahan Dotson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jahan Dotson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jahan Dotson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jahan Dotson usually produces.
Projected is Jahan Dotson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 3 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 2 | CAR | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 3 | GB | 3 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 4 | NO | 3 | 2 | 54 | 1 | 13.4 |
| 5 | BAL | 4 | 2 | 54 | 0 | 7.4 |
| 6 | CHI | 5 | 3 | 87 | 1 | 17.7 |
| 7 | SF | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 8 | TB | 5 | 2 | 95 | 0 | 11.5 |
| Dotson avg | 3.8 | 1.8 | 42.1 | 0.3 | 7.5 | |
| Bears WR2 avg | 5.6 | 3.8 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 9.3 | |
| Difference | +1.8 | +2.0 | +12.9 | -0.3 | +1.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Dotson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJahan Dotson vs the Bears
Prediction for Jahan Dotson
Nobody knows which slot Jahan Dotson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 5.9 points for Jahan Dotson if playing as a WR2. Jahan Dotson has averaged 5.8 over 5 games, and the Bears have given up 9.3 to WR2s (+5% vs the league average of 8.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jahan Dotson scored: Wk 1 2.9, Wk 2 3.1, Wk 3 2.1, Wk 4 13.4, Wk 5 7.4. Average 5.8; weighted toward recent games it is 5.7.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Bears allowed 9.3 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.9, so that is +5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 5.7 x 1.03 = 5.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jahan Dotson is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.5 points, leaning on Jahan Dotson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 6.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.8 receptions, 55.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Bears across 5 games.
- The Bears allow 9.3 PPR points to WR2s, +5% versus the league average of 8.9 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Matthew Golden (20.3 pts, 123 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.3 vs 6.5; yds 55.0 vs 38.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jordan Addison (4.1 pts, 21 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.3 vs 10.6; yds 55.0 vs 63.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.1 to 20.3 (median 5.9).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 5 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.