Trey McBride
TE
Arizona Cardinals
- Teammate Michael Wilson (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Kendrick Bourne (a top target) is on IR, so McBride may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the 49ers in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against 49ers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LA | Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 2 |  MIA | Greg Dulcich | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 |
| Average | 2.0 | 1.5 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 1.5 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | ||
| High | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Trey McBride should do vs the 49ersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the 49ers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Trey McBride has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of 49ers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Trey McBride will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
49ers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Trey McBride's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Trey McBride usually produces.
Projected is Trey McBride's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the 49ers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 13 | 9 | 95 | 1 | 24.5 |
| 2 | SEA | 10 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 18.1 |
| 3 | SF | 11 | 9 | 75 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 4 | NYG | 12 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 10.1 |
| 5 | DET | 10 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 21.6 |
| 6 | LA | 9 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 7 | DEN | 13 | 10 | 111 | 1 | 27.1 |
| 8 | DAL | 8 | 7 | 72 | 1 | 20.2 |
| McBride avg | 10.8 | 8.3 | 68.0 | 0.6 | 18.8 | |
| 49ers TE1 avg | 2.0 | 1.5 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | |
| Difference | -8.8 | -6.8 | -53.0 | -0.6 | -15.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McBride averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreTrey McBride vs the 49ers
Prediction for Trey McBride
Nobody knows which slot Trey McBride will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the 49ers.
I predict about 14.1 points for Trey McBride if playing as a TE1. Trey McBride has averaged 21.3 over 2 games, and the 49ers have given up 3.0 to TE1s (-71% vs the league average of 10.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Trey McBride scored: Wk 1 24.5, Wk 2 18.1. Average 21.3; weighted toward recent games it is 19.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the 49ers allowed 3.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.4, so that is -71%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -28% adjustment (x0.72).
4. Result. 19.8 x 0.72 = 14.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Trey McBride is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.5 points, leaning on Trey McBride's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 1.5 receptions, 15.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the 49ers across 2 games.
- The 49ers allow 3.0 PPR points to TE1s, -71% versus the league average of 10.4 (ranked 32 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.3 to 3.7 (median 3.0).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.