Isaiah Likely
TE
New York Giants
- Teammate Malik Nabers (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Jaguars in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Jaguars in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 2 |  DEN | Nate Adkins | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 12.8 |
| 3 |  NE | Hunter Henry | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 4 |  CIN | Mike Gesicki | 5 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 13.0 |
| 5 |  PHI | Dallas Goedert | 9 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 6 |  HOU | Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 14.7 |
| 8 |  IND | Tyler Warren | 10 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 5.8 |
| Average | 4.9 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 0.6 | 8.8 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 9.8 | ||
| High | 10 | 6 | 40 | 2 | 14.7 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Isaiah Likely should do vs the JaguarsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Isaiah Likely has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Isaiah Likely will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Isaiah Likely's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Isaiah Likely usually produces.
Projected is Isaiah Likely's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 8 | 8 | 78 | 2 | 27.8 |
| 2 | LA | 10 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 3 | TEN | 5 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 12 | 7 | 66 | 0 | 13.6 |
| 5 | WAS | 13 | 11 | 94 | 2 | 32.4 |
| 6 | NO | 11 | 6 | 99 | 1 | 23.9 |
| 7 | HOU | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3.2 |
| Likely avg | 9.0 | 5.9 | 56.4 | 0.7 | 16.1 | |
| Jaguars TE1 avg | 4.9 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 0.6 | 8.8 | |
| Difference | -4.1 | -2.9 | -33.4 | -0.1 | -7.3 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 50.0 | 0.6 | 11.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Likely averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Isaiah LikelyGood confidence · 11.8 proj pts5/10 start
- Isaiah Likely averages 16.1 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 15.5) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Jaguars have allowed 8.8 points to TE1s over 7 games (-16% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (5.6) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 11.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreIsaiah Likely vs the Jaguars
Prediction for Isaiah Likely
Nobody knows which slot Isaiah Likely will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 11.8 points for Isaiah Likely if playing as a TE1. Isaiah Likely has averaged 16.1 over 7 games, and the Jaguars have given up 8.8 to TE1s (-16% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Isaiah Likely scored: Wk 1 27.8, Wk 2 8.3, Wk 3 3.3, Wk 4 13.6, Wk 5 32.4, Wk 6 23.9, Wk 7 3.2. Average 16.1; weighted toward recent games it is 13.3.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Jaguars allowed 8.8 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 13.3 x 0.89 = 11.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Isaiah Likely is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 12.0 points, leaning on Isaiah Likely's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 23.0 receiving yards and 0.6 receiving TDs against the Jaguars across 7 games.
- The Jaguars allow 8.8 PPR points to TE1s, -16% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 22 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, Foster Moreau (14.7 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.8 vs 7.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Dallas Goedert (6 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 3.0 vs 2.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.5 to 14.7 (median 9.8).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 7 games (43%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.