Malik Willis
QB
Miami Dolphins▲ Hot
This is how QBs have played against the Bengals in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TB | Baker Mayfield | 23 | 28 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 11.6 |
| 2 |  HOU | C.J. Stroud | 30 | 55 | 353 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 3 |  PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 19 | 34 | 292 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 22.7 |
| 4 |  JAX | Trevor Lawrence | 18 | 23 | 227 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13.1 |
| Average | 22.5 | 35.0 | 272.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 17.3 | 0.3 | 16.1 | ||
| Median | 21.0 | 31.0 | 259.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 19.5 | 0.0 | 15.1 | ||
| High | 30 | 55 | 353 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 22.7 | ||
| Low | 18 | 23 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Malik Willis should do vs the BengalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bengals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Malik Willis has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bengals opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Malik Willis will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bengals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Malik Willis's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Malik Willis usually produces.
Projected is Malik Willis's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bengals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 15 | 27 | 220 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 16.7 |
| 2 | SF | 14 | 23 | 197 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 3 | KC | 20 | 36 | 210 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 4 | MIN | 9 | 17 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 5 | CIN | 15 | 27 | 137 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 74 | 1 | 18.9 |
| 7 | NYJ | 14 | 21 | 208 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 26.0 |
| 8 | NE | 21 | 32 | 211 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14.6 |
| Willis avg | 15.4 | 26.1 | 181.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 32.1 | 0.4 | 14.5 | |
| Bengals QB1 avg | 22.5 | 35.0 | 272.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 17.3 | 0.3 | 16.1 | |
| Difference | +7.1 | +8.9 | +90.9 | +0.1 | -0.5 | -1.6 | -14.9 | -0.2 | +1.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Willis averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMalik Willis vs the Bengals
Prediction for Malik Willis
Nobody knows which slot Malik Willis will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bengals.
I predict about 10.2 points for Malik Willis if playing as a QB1. Malik Willis has averaged 10.4 over 4 games, and the Bengals have given up 16.1 to QB1s (-3% vs the league average of 16.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Malik Willis scored: Wk 1 16.7, Wk 2 12.5, Wk 3 10.0, Wk 4 2.5. Average 10.4; weighted toward recent games it is 10.4.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Bengals allowed 16.1 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.6, so that is -3%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -2% adjustment (x0.98).
4. Result. 10.4 x 0.98 = 10.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Malik Willis is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.0 points, leaning on Malik Willis's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 272.0 passing yards, 1.0 passing TDs and 17.3 rushing yards against the Bengals across 4 games.
- The Bengals allow 16.1 PPR points to QB1s, -3% versus the league average of 16.6 (ranked 18 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Aaron Rodgers (22.7 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.1 vs 13.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 11.6 to 22.7 (median 15.1).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 4 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.