Michael Wilson
WR
Arizona CardinalsQ▲ Hot
- Teammate Kendrick Bourne (a top target) is on IR, so Wilson may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Raiders in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Raiders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | Caleb Douglas | 7 | 5 | 94 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 2 |  LAC | Ladd McConkey | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 6.5 |
| 3 |  NO | Chris Olave | 13 | 9 | 107 | 0 | 19.7 |
| 4 |  KC | Tyquan Thornton | 8 | 5 | 111 | 2 | 28.1 |
| 5 |  NE | DeMario Douglas | 5 | 4 | 65 | 2 | 22.5 |
| 6 |  BUF | Keon Coleman | 6 | 4 | 59 | 1 | 15.9 |
| 7 |  LA | Puka Nacua | 10 | 8 | 68 | 1 | 21.8 |
| 8 |  NYJ | Adonai Mitchell | 9 | 7 | 142 | 1 | 27.2 |
| Average | 7.6 | 5.6 | 85.1 | 0.9 | 19.5 | ||
| Median | 7.5 | 5.0 | 81.0 | 1.0 | 20.8 | ||
| High | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 28.1 | ||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 6.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Michael Wilson should do vs the RaidersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Raiders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Michael Wilson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Raiders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Michael Wilson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Raiders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Michael Wilson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Michael Wilson usually produces.
Projected is Michael Wilson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Raiders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 7 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 10.6 |
| 2 | SEA | 7 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 3 | SF | 17 | 11 | 89 | 1 | 25.9 |
| 4 | NYG | 13 | 7 | 95 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 5 | DET | 7 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 6 | LA | 7 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 7.2 |
| 7 | DEN | 8 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 10.6 |
| 8 | DAL | 15 | 8 | 111 | 1 | 26.8 |
| Wilson avg | 10.1 | 5.6 | 60.8 | 0.3 | 13.6 | |
| Raiders WR1 avg | 7.6 | 5.6 | 85.1 | 0.9 | 19.5 | |
| Difference | -2.5 | +0.0 | +24.4 | +0.6 | +5.9 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 66.9 | 0.3 | 16.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Wilson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Michael WilsonGood confidence · 16.0 proj pts7/10 start
- Michael Wilson averages 13.6 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 14.9) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Raiders have allowed 19.5 points to WR1s over 8 games (+14% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +10% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.0) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 16.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMichael Wilson vs the Raiders
Prediction for Michael Wilson
Nobody knows which slot Michael Wilson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Raiders.
I predict about 16.0 points for Michael Wilson if playing as a WR1. Michael Wilson has averaged 13.6 over 8 games, and the Raiders have given up 19.5 to WR1s (+14% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Michael Wilson scored: Wk 1 10.6, Wk 2 3.8, Wk 3 25.9, Wk 4 16.5, Wk 5 7.3, Wk 6 7.2, Wk 7 10.6, Wk 8 26.8. Average 13.6; weighted toward recent games it is 14.5.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Raiders allowed 19.5 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +14%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +10% adjustment (x1.10).
4. Result. 14.5 x 1.10 = 16.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Michael Wilson is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.7 points, leaning on Michael Wilson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.6 receptions, 85.1 receiving yards and 0.9 receiving TDs against the Raiders across 8 games.
- The Raiders allow 19.5 PPR points to WR1s, +14% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Ladd McConkey (6.5 pts, 35 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.5 vs 21.4; yds 85.1 vs 92.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 8, Adonai Mitchell (142 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 85.1 vs 77.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.5 to 28.1 (median 20.8).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 8 games (63%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.