Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Backfield mate Bhayshul Tuten is questionable, so Rodriguez could see more carries.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Ravens in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Ravens in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  IND | Seth McGowan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| 2 |  NO | Travis Etienne | 8 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.1 |
| 3 |  DAL | Tyler Goodson | 6 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 4 |  TEN | Tyjae Spears | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 5 |  ATL | Brian Robinson | 7 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 6 |  CLE | Audric Estimé | 9 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 7 |  CIN | Samaje Perine | 4 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 8 |  BUF | Ty Johnson | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Average | 5.0 | 13.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 4.3 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | ||
| High | 9 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 7.9 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 1.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Chris Rodriguez Jr. should do vs the RavensSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Ravens, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Chris Rodriguez Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Ravens opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Chris Rodriguez Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Ravens avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Chris Rodriguez Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Ravens were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 2 | DEN | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | NE | 8 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 4 | CIN | 6 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 5 | PHI | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 6 | HOU | 11 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 8 | IND | 6 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 12.8 |
| Jr. avg | 6.4 | 29.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 6.2 | |
| Ravens RB2 avg | 5.0 | 13.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 4.3 | |
| Difference | -1.4 | -16.2 | -0.2 | +0.7 | +0.7 | -0.9 | +0.0 | -1.8 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 5.7 | 26.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 6.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Chris Rodriguez Jr.Good confidence · 7.0 proj pts1/10 start
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. averages 6.2 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 7.2) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Ravens have allowed 4.3 points to RB2s over 8 games (-15% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (7.7) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +6%: Vegas total 39.5, implied 24.8 points for JAX (league avg 22.6); Favored by 10: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (68F, 3 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Nate Wiggins (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+1%): Backfield mate Bhayshul Tuten is questionable, which can mean more carries for Rodriguez.
- Projection: 7.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreChris Rodriguez Jr. vs the Ravens
Prediction for Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Chris Rodriguez Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Ravens.
I predict about 6.5 points for Chris Rodriguez Jr. if playing as a RB2. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has averaged 6.2 over 7 games, and the Ravens have given up 4.3 to RB2s (-15% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Chris Rodriguez Jr. scored: Wk 1 2.3, Wk 2 1.3, Wk 3 9.7, Wk 4 9.5, Wk 5 2.1, Wk 6 5.5, Wk 8 12.8. Average 6.2; weighted toward recent games it is 7.3.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Ravens allowed 4.3 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is -15%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 7.3 x 0.89 = 6.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Chris Rodriguez Jr. is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (6.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.5 points, leaning on Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 5.0 carries, 13.6 rushing yards and 1.0 receptions against the Ravens across 8 games.
- The Ravens allow 4.3 PPR points to RB2s, -15% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.0 to 7.9 (median 4.0).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 8 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.