Emari Demercado
RB
Dallas Cowboys
- Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Justice Hill | 6 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 2 |  KC | Emmett Johnson | 2 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 3 |  HOU | David Montgomery | 11 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 4 |  WAS | Austin Ekeler | 4 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 5 |  PIT | Lew Nichols III | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| 6 |  TEN | Tyjae Spears | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 7 |  MIN | Aaron Jones | 8 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 8 |  JAX | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 6 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 12.8 |
| Average | 4.9 | 21.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 4.4 | ||
| High | 11 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 12.8 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Emari Demercado should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Emari Demercado has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Emari Demercado will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Emari Demercado's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Emari Demercado usually produces.
Projected is Emari Demercado's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | WAS | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Demercado avg | 2.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | |
| Colts RB2 avg | 4.9 | 21.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | |
| Difference | +2.4 | +13.6 | +0.1 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +10.0 | +0.0 | +4.2 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Demercado averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Emari DemercadoMedium confidence · 3.4 proj pts1/10 start
- Emari Demercado averages 0.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 0.8) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Colts have allowed 5.0 points to RB2s over 8 games (-2% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -1% adjustment.
- Last season's average (5.3) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +14%: Vegas total 51.5, implied 28.5 points for DAL (league avg 22.6); Favored by 5.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Akeem Davis-Gaither (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Justin Walley (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+0%): Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Demercado.
- Projection: 3.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreEmari Demercado vs the Colts
Prediction for Emari Demercado
Nobody knows which slot Emari Demercado will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 3.0 points for Emari Demercado if playing as a RB2. Emari Demercado has averaged 0.8 over 2 games, and the Colts have given up 5.0 to RB2s (-2% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Emari Demercado scored: Wk 1 0.7, Wk 2 0.8. Average 0.8; weighted toward recent games it is 3.0.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Colts allowed 5.0 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is -2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -1% adjustment (x0.99).
4. Result. 3.0 x 0.99 = 3.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Emari Demercado is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.8 points, leaning on Emari Demercado's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 4.9 carries, 21.1 rushing yards and 1.1 receptions against the Colts across 8 games.
- The Colts allow 5.0 PPR points to RB2s, -2% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 12 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Chris Rodriguez Jr. (12.8 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.0 vs 3.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, David Montgomery (11 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 4.9 vs 4.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.6 to 12.8 (median 4.4).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 8 games (13%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.