Marvin Mims Jr.
WR
Denver Broncos
- Teammate RJ Harvey (a top target) is on IR, so Mims may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Chargers in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Chargers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ARI | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 3 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 4.3 |
| 2 |  LV | Jack Bech | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 3 |  BUF | Khalil Shakir | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 4 |  SEA | Tory Horton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7.6 |
| Average | 2.3 | 1.3 | 17.5 | 0.3 | 4.5 | ||
| Median | 2.5 | 1.0 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 4.4 | ||
| High | 3 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 7.6 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Marvin Mims Jr. should do vs the ChargersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chargers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Marvin Mims Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chargers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Marvin Mims Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chargers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Marvin Mims Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Marvin Mims Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Marvin Mims Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chargers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SF | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.0 |
| 5 | LAC | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 6 | SEA | 4 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 7 | ARI | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 8 | KC | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4.9 |
| Jr. avg | 2.8 | 1.8 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 4.1 | |
| Chargers WR3 avg | 2.3 | 1.3 | 17.5 | 0.3 | 4.5 | |
| Difference | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.9 | +0.3 | +0.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMarvin Mims Jr. vs the Chargers
Prediction for Marvin Mims Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Marvin Mims Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chargers.
I predict about 5.2 points for Marvin Mims Jr. if playing as a WR3. Marvin Mims Jr. has averaged 2.0 over 1 game, and the Chargers have given up 4.5 to WR3s (+2% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Marvin Mims Jr. scored: Wk 4 2.0. Average 2.0; weighted toward recent games it is 5.2.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Chargers allowed 4.5 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +1% adjustment (x1.01).
4. Result. 5.2 x 1.01 = 5.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Marvin Mims Jr. is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.1 points, leaning on Marvin Mims Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 1.3 receptions, 17.5 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Chargers across 4 games.
- The Chargers allow 4.5 PPR points to WR3s, +2% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 18 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 0 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.6 to 7.6 (median 4.4).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 1 of 4 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.