Marvin Mims Jr.
WR
Denver Broncos
- Teammate RJ Harvey (a top target) is on IR, so Mims may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Seahawks in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Seahawks in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NE | A.J. Brown | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 |
| 2 |  ARI | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3 |  WAS | Stefon Diggs | 7 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 4 |  LAC | Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 5 |  SF | Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Average | 3.2 | 2.0 | 17.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | ||
| High | 7 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 7.3 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Marvin Mims Jr. should do vs the SeahawksSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Seahawks, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Marvin Mims Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Seahawks opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Marvin Mims Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Seahawks avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Marvin Mims Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Marvin Mims Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Marvin Mims Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Seahawks were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SF | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.0 |
| 5 | LAC | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 6 | SEA | 4 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 7 | ARI | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 8 | KC | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4.9 |
| Jr. avg | 2.8 | 1.8 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 4.1 | |
| Seahawks WR3 avg | 3.2 | 2.0 | 17.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Difference | +0.4 | +0.2 | -1.2 | +0.0 | -0.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMarvin Mims Jr. vs the Seahawks
Prediction for Marvin Mims Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Marvin Mims Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Seahawks.
I predict about 4.0 points for Marvin Mims Jr. if playing as a WR3. Marvin Mims Jr. has averaged 2.5 over 2 games, and the Seahawks have given up 3.4 to WR3s (-22% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Marvin Mims Jr. scored: Wk 4 2.0, Wk 5 2.9. Average 2.5; weighted toward recent games it is 4.6.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Seahawks allowed 3.4 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is -22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 4.6 x 0.86 = 4.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Marvin Mims Jr. is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.4 points, leaning on Marvin Mims Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 2.0 receptions, 17.2 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Seahawks across 5 games.
- The Seahawks allow 3.4 PPR points to WR3s, -22% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 22 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 7.3 (median 2.5).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 5 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.