Josh Downs
WR
Indianapolis Colts
This is how WRs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | DeVonta Smith | 6 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 2 |  DAL | George Pickens | 8 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 3 |  SEA | Cooper Kupp | 5 | 4 | 46 | 1 | 14.6 |
| Average | 6.3 | 4.3 | 46.3 | 0.3 | 11.0 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 4.0 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | ||
| High | 8 | 6 | 53 | 1 | 14.6 | ||
| Low | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 8.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Josh Downs should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Downs has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Downs will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Downs's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Downs usually produces.
Projected is Josh Downs's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 4 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 2 | KC | 9 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 3 | HOU | 11 | 5 | 77 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 4 | WAS | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 5 | PIT | 6 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 6 | TEN | 8 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 8.7 |
| 7 | MIN | 4 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 8 | JAX | 5 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 12.3 |
| Downs avg | 6.4 | 3.8 | 41.3 | 0.1 | 8.7 | |
| Commanders WR2 avg | 6.3 | 4.3 | 46.3 | 0.3 | 11.0 | |
| Difference | -0.0 | +0.6 | +5.1 | +0.2 | +2.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Downs averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJosh Downs vs the Commanders
Prediction for Josh Downs
Nobody knows which slot Josh Downs will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 11.6 points for Josh Downs if playing as a WR2. Josh Downs has averaged 10.9 over 3 games, and the Commanders have given up 11.0 to WR2s (+26% vs the league average of 8.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Downs scored: Wk 1 5.7, Wk 2 14.2, Wk 3 12.7. Average 10.9; weighted toward recent games it is 10.3.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Commanders allowed 11.0 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.7, so that is +26%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +13% adjustment (x1.13).
4. Result. 10.3 x 1.13 = 11.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Downs is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.8 points, leaning on Josh Downs's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 4.3 receptions, 46.3 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 3 games.
- The Commanders allow 11.0 PPR points to WR2s, +26% versus the league average of 8.7 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.3 to 14.6 (median 10.0).
- Every WR2 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 3 games (33%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.