Spencer Shrader
K
Indianapolis Colts
This is how Ks have played against the Titans in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYJ | Jason Sanders | 3 | 4 | 2 | 52 | 2 | 15.0 |
| 2 |  PHI | Jake Elliott | 1 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 3 | 8.0 |
| 3 |  NYG | Dominic Zvada | 4 | 4 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 12.0 |
| 4 |  BAL | Tyler Loop | 1 | 2 | 1 | 64 | 3 | 8.0 |
| 5 |  HOU | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 4 | 4 | 2 | 53 | 2 | 17.0 |
| Average | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 53.2 | 2.0 | 12.0 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 53.0 | 2.0 | 12.0 | ||
| High | 4 | 4 | 2 | 64 | 3 | 17.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 8.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Spencer Shrader should do vs the TitansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Titans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Spencer Shrader has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Titans opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Spencer Shrader will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Titans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Spencer Shrader's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Spencer Shrader usually produces.
Projected is Spencer Shrader's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Titans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 2 | 7.0 |
| 2 | KC | 3 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 3 | 14.0 |
| 3 | HOU | 4 | 4 | 2 | 58 | 1 | 17.0 |
| 4 | WAS | 3 | 3 | 3 | 52 | 3 | 16.0 |
| 5 | PIT | 5 | 5 | 3 | 57 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 6 | TEN | 2 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 2 | 9.0 |
| 7 | MIN | 1 | 3 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 5.0 |
| 8 | JAX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Shrader avg | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 45.5 | 1.8 | 11.3 | |
| Titans K1 avg | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 53.2 | 2.0 | 12.0 | |
| Difference | +0.2 | +0.4 | -0.4 | +7.7 | +0.3 | +0.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Shrader averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreSpencer Shrader vs the Titans
Prediction for Spencer Shrader
Nobody knows which slot Spencer Shrader will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Titans.
I predict about 18.4 points for Spencer Shrader if playing as a K1. Spencer Shrader has averaged 15.0 over 5 games, and the Titans have given up 12.0 to K1s (+37% vs the league average of 8.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Spencer Shrader scored: Wk 1 7.0, Wk 2 14.0, Wk 3 17.0, Wk 4 16.0, Wk 5 21.0. Average 15.0; weighted toward recent games it is 14.9.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Titans allowed 12.0 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.7, so that is +37%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +23% adjustment (x1.23).
4. Result. 14.9 x 1.23 = 18.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Spencer Shrader is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.3 points, leaning on Spencer Shrader's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 2.6 field goals made, 3.0 field goal attempts and 2.0 extra points against the Titans across 5 games.
- The Titans allow 12.0 PPR points to K1s, +37% versus the league average of 8.7 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jake Elliott (1 FG) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: FG 2.6 vs 3.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Tyler Loop (1 FG) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: FG 2.6 vs 3.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 5 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.0 to 17.0 (median 12.0).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.