MarShawn Lloyd
RB
Green Bay PackersQ
- Teammate Christian Watson (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Bears in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 23.7 |
| 2 |  MIN | Aaron Jones | 23 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 3 |  PHI | Saquon Barkley | 15 | 82 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Braelon Allen | 14 | 59 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8.7 |
| Average | 15.5 | 73.8 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 11.0 | 0.3 | 13.0 | ||
| Median | 14.5 | 70.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 9.8 | ||
| High | 23 | 105 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 23.7 | ||
| Low | 10 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How MarShawn Lloyd should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game MarShawn Lloyd has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot MarShawn Lloyd will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus MarShawn Lloyd's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than MarShawn Lloyd usually produces.
Projected is MarShawn Lloyd's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 13 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 2 | NYJ | 6 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8.6 |
| 3 | ATL | 4 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 4 | TB | 7 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 5 | CHI | 10 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16.7 |
| 6 | DAL | 8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| 7 | DET | 6 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 8 | CAR | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.6 |
| Lloyd avg | 7.1 | 18.6 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 9.9 | 0.1 | 6.5 | |
| Bears RB1 avg | 15.5 | 73.8 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 11.0 | 0.3 | 13.0 | |
| Difference | +8.4 | +55.1 | +0.0 | -0.4 | -0.1 | +1.1 | +0.1 | +6.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lloyd averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMarShawn Lloyd vs the Bears
Prediction for MarShawn Lloyd
Nobody knows which slot MarShawn Lloyd will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 6.1 points for MarShawn Lloyd if playing as a RB1. MarShawn Lloyd has averaged 6.5 over 4 games, and the Bears have given up 13.0 to RB1s (-19% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. MarShawn Lloyd scored: Wk 1 3.7, Wk 2 8.6, Wk 3 3.8, Wk 4 9.9. Average 6.5; weighted toward recent games it is 6.9.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Bears allowed 13.0 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is -19%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 6.9 x 0.89 = 6.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely MarShawn Lloyd is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (6.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.4 points, leaning on MarShawn Lloyd's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 6.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 15.5 carries, 73.8 rushing yards and 1.5 receptions against the Bears across 4 games.
- The Bears allow 13.0 PPR points to RB1s, -19% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Aaron Jones (23 car, 105 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 15.5 vs 13.0; rush yds 73.8 vs 63.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Chuba Hubbard (23.7 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.0 vs 9.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.7 to 23.7 (median 9.8).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 40 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 4 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.