MarShawn Lloyd
RB
Green Bay Packers
- Teammate Christian Watson (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jadarian Price | 10 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 2 |  PIT | Jaylen Warren | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 3 |  JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | 15 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 4 |  BUF | James Cook | 12 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 16.3 |
| 5 |  LV | Dylan Laube | 4 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.5 |
| 6 |  NYJ | Braelon Allen | 17 | 78 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 12.4 |
| 7 |  CHI | D'Andre Swift | 22 | 78 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 19.0 |
| 8 |  MIA | Ollie Gordon II | 19 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Average | 13.8 | 59.6 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 14.9 | 0.0 | 12.6 | ||
| Median | 13.5 | 71.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 11.9 | ||
| High | 22 | 78 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 19.0 | ||
| Low | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How MarShawn Lloyd should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game MarShawn Lloyd has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot MarShawn Lloyd will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus MarShawn Lloyd's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than MarShawn Lloyd usually produces.
Projected is MarShawn Lloyd's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 13 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 2 | NYJ | 6 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8.6 |
| 3 | ATL | 4 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 4 | TB | 7 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 5 | CHI | 10 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16.7 |
| 6 | DAL | 8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| 7 | DET | 6 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 8 | CAR | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.6 |
| Lloyd avg | 7.1 | 18.6 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 9.9 | 0.1 | 6.5 | |
| Patriots RB1 avg | 13.8 | 59.6 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 14.9 | 0.0 | 12.6 | |
| Difference | +6.6 | +41.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +5.0 | -0.1 | +6.1 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 6.0 | 15.7 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 8.3 | 0.1 | 5.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lloyd averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · MarShawn LloydGood confidence · 4.9 proj pts1/10 start
- MarShawn Lloyd averages 6.5 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 5.9) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Patriots have allowed 12.6 points to RB1s over 8 games (-22% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -16% adjustment.
- Game environment -4%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.8 points for GB (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (48F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Marcus Jones (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Carlton Davis III (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+0%): Teammate Christian Watson (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Lloyd.
- Projection: 4.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMarShawn Lloyd vs the Patriots
Prediction for MarShawn Lloyd
Nobody knows which slot MarShawn Lloyd will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 5.0 points for MarShawn Lloyd if playing as a RB1. MarShawn Lloyd has averaged 6.5 over 8 games, and the Patriots have given up 12.6 to RB1s (-22% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. MarShawn Lloyd scored: Wk 1 3.7, Wk 2 8.6, Wk 3 3.8, Wk 4 9.9, Wk 5 16.7, Wk 6 1.0, Wk 7 5.5, Wk 8 2.6. Average 6.5; weighted toward recent games it is 5.9.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Patriots allowed 12.6 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -16% adjustment (x0.84).
4. Result. 5.9 x 0.84 = 5.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely MarShawn Lloyd is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.1 points, leaning on MarShawn Lloyd's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 13.8 carries, 59.6 rushing yards and 2.1 receptions against the Patriots across 8 games.
- The Patriots allow 12.6 PPR points to RB1s, -22% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 7, D'Andre Swift (19.0 pts, 22 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.6 vs 11.7; car 13.8 vs 12.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Dylan Laube (4 car, 9 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 13.8 vs 15.1; rush yds 59.6 vs 66.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.9 to 19.0 (median 11.9).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 8 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.