Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR
Houston Texans▲ Hot
This is how WRs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Makai Lemon | 4 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 2 |  DAL | Ryan Flournoy | 6 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 3 |  SEA | Tory Horton | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 4 |  IND | Josh Downs | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 5 |  NYG | Darnell Mooney | 7 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 6 |  SF | Brandin Cooks | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 8 | PHI | Marquise Brown | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 |
| Average | 4.0 | 2.7 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | ||
| High | 7 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 2.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Marvin Harrison Jr. should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Marvin Harrison Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Marvin Harrison Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Marvin Harrison Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Marvin Harrison Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Marvin Harrison Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 3 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 4.3 |
| 2 | SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 4 | NYG | 4 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 8.2 |
| 6 | JAX | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 7 | NYG | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7.6 |
| Jr. avg | 3.5 | 1.5 | 20.8 | 0.3 | 5.6 | |
| Commanders WR3 avg | 4.0 | 2.7 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | |
| Difference | +0.5 | +1.2 | -2.8 | -0.3 | -1.1 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 21.3 | 0.3 | 7.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Marvin Harrison Jr.Good confidence · 7.5 proj pts1/10 start
- Marvin Harrison Jr. averages 5.6 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 6.2) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Commanders have allowed 4.5 points to WR3s over 7 games (+3% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +2% adjustment.
- Last season's average (10.7) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 7.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMarvin Harrison Jr. vs the Commanders
Prediction for Marvin Harrison Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Marvin Harrison Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 7.5 points for Marvin Harrison Jr. if playing as a WR3. Marvin Harrison Jr. has averaged 5.6 over 6 games, and the Commanders have given up 4.5 to WR3s (+3% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Marvin Harrison Jr. scored: Wk 1 4.3, Wk 2 0.0, Wk 3 7.0, Wk 4 8.2, Wk 6 6.4, Wk 7 7.6. Average 5.6; weighted toward recent games it is 7.3.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Commanders allowed 4.5 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +3%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +2% adjustment (x1.02).
4. Result. 7.3 x 1.02 = 7.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Marvin Harrison Jr. is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.0 points, leaning on Marvin Harrison Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 2.7 receptions, 18.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 7 games.
- The Commanders allow 4.5 PPR points to WR3s, +3% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Tory Horton (48 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 18.0 vs 13.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.3 to 7.8 (median 3.7).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 7 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.