Ray Davis
RB
Buffalo Bills
- Teammate Dalton Kincaid (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate DJ Moore (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Brady Russell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 2 |  PIT | Rico Dowdle | 7 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 3 |  JAX | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 8 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.7 |
| Average | 5.0 | 19.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 6.4 | ||
| High | 8 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 9.7 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ray Davis should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ray Davis has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ray Davis will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ray Davis's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ray Davis usually produces.
Projected is Ray Davis's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | NE | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 5 | LA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 4.3 |
| 6 | LV | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 8 | BAL | 6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Davis avg | 2.2 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | |
| Patriots RB2 avg | 5.0 | 19.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | |
| Difference | +2.8 | +11.3 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +6.0 | +0.0 | +4.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Davis averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreRay Davis vs the Patriots
Prediction for Ray Davis
Nobody knows which slot Ray Davis will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 3.8 points for Ray Davis if playing as a RB2. Ray Davis has averaged 0.3 over 1 game, and the Patriots have given up 6.7 to RB2s (+45% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ray Davis scored: Wk 1 0.3. Average 0.3; weighted toward recent games it is 3.1.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Patriots allowed 6.7 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +45%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +22% adjustment (x1.22).
4. Result. 3.1 x 1.22 = 3.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ray Davis is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.3 points, leaning on Ray Davis's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 5.0 carries, 19.7 rushing yards and 1.3 receptions against the Patriots across 3 games.
- The Patriots allow 6.7 PPR points to RB2s, +45% versus the league average of 4.6 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Brady Russell (0 car) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 5.0 vs 7.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.0 to 9.7 (median 6.4).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 3 games (33%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.