Michael Penix Jr.
QB
Atlanta Falcons
This is how QBs have played against the Saints in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jared Goff | 26 | 39 | 206 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16.4 |
| 2 |  BAL | Lamar Jackson | 21 | 31 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 14.8 |
| 3 |  LV | Kirk Cousins | 22 | 33 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 22.2 |
| Average | 23.0 | 34.3 | 229.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 17.8 | ||
| Median | 22.0 | 33.0 | 235.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 16.4 | ||
| High | 26 | 39 | 248 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 22.2 | ||
| Low | 21 | 31 | 206 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Michael Penix Jr. should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Michael Penix Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Michael Penix Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Michael Penix Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Michael Penix Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Michael Penix Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | GB | 18 | 25 | 256 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14.0 |
| 4 | NO | 15 | 20 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 5 | BAL | 19 | 32 | 240 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 6 | CHI | 19 | 33 | 225 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23.1 |
| 7 | SF | 25 | 34 | 213 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 20.4 |
| 8 | TB | 8 | 24 | 125 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Jr. avg | 17.3 | 28.0 | 213.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 13.8 | |
| Saints QB1 avg | 23.0 | 34.3 | 229.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 17.8 | |
| Difference | +5.7 | +6.3 | +16.0 | +0.5 | -0.5 | +0.2 | +10.5 | +0.0 | +4.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMichael Penix Jr. vs the Saints
Prediction for Michael Penix Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Michael Penix Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 13.9 points for Michael Penix Jr. if playing as a QB1. Michael Penix Jr. has averaged 14.0 over 1 game, and the Saints have given up 17.8 to QB1s (+4% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Michael Penix Jr. scored: Wk 3 14.0. Average 14.0; weighted toward recent games it is 13.6.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Saints allowed 17.8 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +2% adjustment (x1.02).
4. Result. 13.6 x 1.02 = 13.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Michael Penix Jr. is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.3 points, leaning on Michael Penix Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 229.7 passing yards, 2.0 passing TDs and 13.0 rushing yards against the Saints across 3 games.
- The Saints allow 17.8 PPR points to QB1s, +4% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 13 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 2 of 3 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 14.8 to 22.2 (median 16.4).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 3 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.