Brashard Smith
RB
Kansas City ChiefsIR
This is how RBs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Rico Dowdle | 8 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 2 |  CAR | Jonathon Brooks | 5 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 3 |  GB | Kaleb Johnson | 4 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 4 |  NO | CJ Donaldson | 3 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4.3 |
| 5 |  BAL | Justice Hill | 4 | 73 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 6 |  CHI | Roschon Johnson | 13 | 51 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 7 |  SF | Kaelon Black | 12 | 63 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 10.9 |
| 8 |  TB | Kenny Gainwell | 25 | 140 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.0 |
| Average | 9.3 | 47.8 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 7.8 | ||
| Median | 6.5 | 34.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | ||
| High | 25 | 140 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 14.5 | ||
| Low | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 2.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brashard Smith should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brashard Smith has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brashard Smith will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brashard Smith's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brashard Smith usually produces.
Projected is Brashard Smith's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Smith avg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | |
| Falcons RB2 avg | 9.3 | 47.8 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 7.8 | |
| Difference | +9.3 | +47.8 | +0.3 | +1.6 | +0.4 | +2.4 | +0.0 | +6.4 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 4.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Brashard SmithMedium confidence · 4.3 proj ptsOut
- Brashard Smith averages 1.4 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 1.4) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Falcons have allowed 7.8 points to RB2s over 8 games (+53% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (4.2) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: IR. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 4.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrashard Smith vs the Falcons
Prediction for Brashard Smith
Nobody knows which slot Brashard Smith will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 4.3 points for Brashard Smith if playing as a RB2. Brashard Smith has averaged 1.4 over 1 game, and the Falcons have given up 7.8 to RB2s (+53% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brashard Smith scored: Wk 3 1.4. Average 1.4; weighted toward recent games it is 3.3.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Falcons allowed 7.8 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is +53%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 3.3 x 1.30 = 4.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brashard Smith is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.6 points, leaning on Brashard Smith's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 9.3 carries, 47.8 rushing yards and 1.4 receptions against the Falcons across 8 games.
- The Falcons allow 7.8 PPR points to RB2s, +53% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Kenny Gainwell (14.0 pts, 25 car, 140 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.8 vs 6.9; car 9.3 vs 7.0; rush yds 47.8 vs 34.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jonathon Brooks (2.1 pts, 16 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.8 vs 8.6; rush yds 47.8 vs 52.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.1 to 14.5 (median 7.1).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 8 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.