Colston Loveland
TE
Chicago Bears▲ Hot
This is how TEs have played against the Buccaneers in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Buccaneers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Mike Gesicki | 7 | 5 | 78 | 1 | 18.8 |
| 2 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 6 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 3 |  MIN | T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 4 |  GB | Tucker Kraft | 7 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 16.5 |
| 5 |  DAL | Jake Ferguson | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 6 |  PIT | Darnell Washington | 6 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 12.5 |
| 7 |  CAR | Darren Waller | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1 | 12.0 |
| 8 |  ATL | Kyle Pitts | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 |
| Average | 5.4 | 3.5 | 35.6 | 0.5 | 10.1 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 3.5 | 33.5 | 0.5 | 11.2 | ||
| High | 7 | 6 | 78 | 1 | 18.8 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Colston Loveland should do vs the BuccaneersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Colston Loveland has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Colston Loveland will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Colston Loveland's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Colston Loveland usually produces.
Projected is Colston Loveland's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | MIN | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | PHI | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 7.1 |
| 4 | NYJ | 9 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 5 | GB | 5 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 6 | ATL | 7 | 6 | 65 | 1 | 18.5 |
| 7 | NE | 12 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 19.9 |
| 8 | SEA | 9 | 7 | 65 | 0 | 11.5 |
| Loveland avg | 6.4 | 4.1 | 38.6 | 0.3 | 9.2 | |
| Buccaneers TE1 avg | 5.4 | 3.5 | 35.6 | 0.5 | 10.1 | |
| Difference | -1.0 | -0.6 | -3.0 | +0.3 | +0.9 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 37.5 | 0.2 | 11.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Loveland averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Colston LovelandGood confidence · 12.3 proj pts5/10 start
- Colston Loveland averages 9.2 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 11.7) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 10.1 points to TE1s over 8 games (-4% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -3% adjustment.
- Last season's average (10.3) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +7%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 26.8 points for CHI (league avg 22.6); Favored by 6: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (55F, 9 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- QB change: Caleb Williams is now throwing (7.8 yds/att vs 7.4 earlier), x1.03.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Tykee Smith (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 12.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreColston Loveland vs the Buccaneers
Prediction for Colston Loveland
Nobody knows which slot Colston Loveland will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 11.1 points for Colston Loveland if playing as a TE1. Colston Loveland has averaged 9.2 over 8 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 10.1 to TE1s (-4% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Colston Loveland scored: Wk 1 0.0, Wk 2 1.3, Wk 3 7.1, Wk 4 11.7, Wk 5 3.9, Wk 6 18.5, Wk 7 19.9, Wk 8 11.5. Average 9.2; weighted toward recent games it is 11.4.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Buccaneers allowed 10.1 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -3% adjustment (x0.97).
4. Result. 11.4 x 0.97 = 11.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Colston Loveland is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.5 points, leaning on Colston Loveland's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 3.5 receptions, 35.6 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Buccaneers across 8 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 10.1 PPR points to TE1s, -4% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Mike Gesicki (18.8 pts, 78 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.1 vs 8.9; yds 35.6 vs 29.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 8, Kyle Pitts (2.6 pts, 6 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.1 vs 11.2; yds 35.6 vs 39.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.6 to 18.8 (median 11.2).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 8 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.