Jaylin Noel
WR
Houston TexansIR
This is how WRs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Chris Moore | 2 | 1 | 53 | 0 | 6.3 |
| 2 |  KC | Tyquan Thornton | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Average | 3.0 | 2.5 | 69.5 | 0.0 | 9.4 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.5 | 69.5 | 0.0 | 9.4 | ||
| High | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 | 12.6 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 53 | 0 | 6.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaylin Noel should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaylin Noel has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaylin Noel will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaylin Noel's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaylin Noel usually produces.
Projected is Jaylin Noel's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 2 | CIN | 5 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 3 | IND | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 4 | DAL | 3 | 3 | 85 | 0 | 11.9 |
| 5 | TEN | 5 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 15.2 |
| 6 | JAX | 4 | 4 | 107 | 1 | 20.7 |
| 7 | NYG | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Noel avg | 3.3 | 2.7 | 47.3 | 0.3 | 9.5 | |
| Colts WR2 avg | 3.0 | 2.5 | 69.5 | 0.0 | 9.4 | |
| Difference | -0.3 | -0.2 | +22.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Noel averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaylin Noel vs the Colts
Prediction for Jaylin Noel
Nobody knows which slot Jaylin Noel will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 6.1 points for Jaylin Noel if playing as a WR2. Jaylin Noel has averaged 6.3 over 2 games, and the Colts have given up 9.4 to WR2s (+16% vs the league average of 8.2).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaylin Noel scored: Wk 1 7.3, Wk 2 5.4. Average 6.3; weighted toward recent games it is 5.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Colts allowed 9.4 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.2, so that is +16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +6% adjustment (x1.06).
4. Result. 5.8 x 1.06 = 6.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaylin Noel is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (6.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.7 points, leaning on Jaylin Noel's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 6.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 2.5 receptions, 69.5 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Colts across 2 games.
- The Colts allow 9.4 PPR points to WR2s, +16% versus the league average of 8.2 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.3 to 12.6 (median 9.4).
- Every WR2 in the sample cleared 50 receiving yards.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.