Ollie Gordon II
RB
Miami Dolphins▲ Hot
This is how RBs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Brady Russell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 2 |  PIT | Rico Dowdle | 7 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 3 |  JAX | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 8 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 4 |  BUF | Ty Johnson | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 3.2 |
| 5 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | 10 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 6 |  NYJ | Isaiah Davis | 7 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 7 |  CHI | Roschon Johnson | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Average | 5.0 | 16.9 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 5.6 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | ||
| High | 10 | 37 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 10.7 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ollie Gordon II should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ollie Gordon II has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ollie Gordon II will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ollie Gordon II's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ollie Gordon II usually produces.
Projected is Ollie Gordon II's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SF | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | KC | 17 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 4 | MIN | 9 | 100 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18.0 |
| 5 | CIN | 18 | 88 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.8 |
| 7 | NYJ | 25 | 103 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17.3 |
| 8 | NE | 19 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| II avg | 15.2 | 68.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 12.0 | |
| Patriots RB2 avg | 5.0 | 16.9 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |
| Difference | -10.2 | -51.1 | -0.5 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +13.5 | +0.0 | -6.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what II averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreOllie Gordon II vs the Patriots
Prediction for Ollie Gordon II
Nobody knows which slot Ollie Gordon II will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 12.1 points for Ollie Gordon II if playing as a RB2. Ollie Gordon II has averaged 13.1 over 5 games, and the Patriots have given up 5.6 to RB2s (+11% vs the league average of 5.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ollie Gordon II scored: Wk 2 0.7, Wk 3 14.5, Wk 4 18.0, Wk 5 14.8, Wk 7 17.3. Average 13.1; weighted toward recent games it is 11.2.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Patriots allowed 5.6 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.0, so that is +11%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +8% adjustment (x1.08).
4. Result. 11.2 x 1.08 = 12.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ollie Gordon II is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.1 points, leaning on Ollie Gordon II's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 5.0 carries, 16.9 rushing yards and 1.4 receptions against the Patriots across 7 games.
- The Patriots allow 5.6 PPR points to RB2s, +11% versus the league average of 5.0 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 1 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.3 to 10.7 (median 4.0).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 7 games (14%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.