Ollie Gordon II
RB
Miami Dolphins▲ Hot
This is how RBs have played against the Lions in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Lions in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NO | Kendre Miller | 9 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 3 |  NYJ | Braelon Allen | 4 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 4 |  CAR | AJ Dillon | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 5 |  ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 12 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 |
| 7 |  GB | MarShawn Lloyd | 6 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 8 |  MIN | Jordan Mason | 8 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 |
| Average | 7.3 | 18.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 4.2 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | ||
| High | 12 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 9.0 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ollie Gordon II should do vs the LionsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Lions, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ollie Gordon II has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Lions opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ollie Gordon II will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Lions avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ollie Gordon II's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ollie Gordon II usually produces.
Projected is Ollie Gordon II's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Lions were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SF | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | KC | 17 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 4 | MIN | 9 | 100 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18.0 |
| 5 | CIN | 18 | 88 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.8 |
| 7 | NYJ | 25 | 103 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17.3 |
| 8 | NE | 19 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| II avg | 15.2 | 68.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 12.0 | |
| Lions RB2 avg | 7.3 | 18.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 4.2 | |
| Difference | -7.8 | -50.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | +0.0 | +1.5 | +0.0 | -7.9 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 13.4 | 59.9 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 8.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what II averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Ollie Gordon IIGood confidence · 9.0 proj pts5/10 start
- Ollie Gordon II averages 12.0 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 12.4) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Lions have allowed 4.2 points to RB2s over 6 games (-18% vs league). The model applies 67% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -12% adjustment.
- Last season's average (3.4) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -2%: Vegas total 50.5, implied 21.8 points for MIA (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 7: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (84F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+3%): Opposing starter Jack Campbell (LB) is doubtful, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter D.J. Reed (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 9.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreOllie Gordon II vs the Lions
Prediction for Ollie Gordon II
Nobody knows which slot Ollie Gordon II will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Lions.
I predict about 8.9 points for Ollie Gordon II if playing as a RB2. Ollie Gordon II has averaged 12.0 over 6 games, and the Lions have given up 4.2 to RB2s (-18% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ollie Gordon II scored: Wk 2 0.7, Wk 3 14.5, Wk 4 18.0, Wk 5 14.8, Wk 7 17.3, Wk 8 6.9. Average 12.0; weighted toward recent games it is 10.1.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Lions allowed 4.2 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is -18%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -12% adjustment (x0.88).
4. Result. 10.1 x 0.88 = 8.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ollie Gordon II is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.8 points, leaning on Ollie Gordon II's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 7.3 carries, 18.0 rushing yards and 1.0 receptions against the Lions across 7 games.
- The Lions allow 4.2 PPR points to RB2s, -18% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 27 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.7 to 9.0 (median 3.5).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 games (17%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.