Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB
Washington CommandersIR
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Croskey-Merritt may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Jaylen Warren | 10 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 2 |  CAR | Chuba Hubbard | 12 | 53 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 14.4 |
| 3 |  GB | MarShawn Lloyd | 4 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 4 |  NO | Alvin Kamara | 7 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 22.8 |
| 5 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 24 | 102 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 6 |  CHI | D'Andre Swift | 16 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 23.0 |
| 7 |  SF | Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 39 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 22.0 |
| 8 |  TB | Bucky Irving | 27 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.0 |
| Average | 13.4 | 61.0 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 23.1 | 0.3 | 17.3 | ||
| Median | 11.0 | 45.0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | ||
| High | 27 | 170 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 23.0 | ||
| Low | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jacory Croskey-Merritt should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jacory Croskey-Merritt has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually produces.
Projected is Jacory Croskey-Merritt's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 3 | SEA | 19 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 4 | IND | 9 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 5 | NYG | 11 | 82 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Croskey-Merritt avg | 13.4 | 47.8 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| Falcons RB1 avg | 13.4 | 61.0 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 23.1 | 0.3 | 17.3 | |
| Difference | -0.0 | +13.2 | +0.3 | +2.6 | +2.1 | +15.1 | +0.3 | +8.3 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 14.1 | 50.4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 9.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Croskey-Merritt averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jacory Croskey-MerrittGood confidence · 9.5 proj ptsOut
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt averages 9.0 PPR points over 5 games (recent-weighted 9.3) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Falcons have allowed 17.3 points to RB1s over 8 games (+7% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +5% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.3) is blended in at 29% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: IR. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 9.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJacory Croskey-Merritt vs the Falcons
Prediction for Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 9.5 points for Jacory Croskey-Merritt if playing as a RB1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 9.0 over 5 games, and the Falcons have given up 17.3 to RB1s (+7% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored: Wk 1 12.6, Wk 2 5.8, Wk 3 5.3, Wk 4 7.0, Wk 5 14.2. Average 9.0; weighted toward recent games it is 9.0.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Falcons allowed 17.3 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +7%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).
4. Result. 9.0 x 1.05 = 9.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jacory Croskey-Merritt is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.4 points, leaning on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 13.4 carries, 61.0 rushing yards and 3.1 receptions against the Falcons across 8 games.
- The Falcons allow 17.3 PPR points to RB1s, +7% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, MarShawn Lloyd (3.8 pts, 4 car, 11 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 17.3 vs 19.2; car 13.4 vs 14.7; rush yds 61.0 vs 68.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Derrick Henry (24 car, 102 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 13.4 vs 11.9; rush yds 61.0 vs 55.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.8 to 23.0 (median 21.0).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 8 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.