Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB
Washington CommandersIR
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Croskey-Merritt may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Rams in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 2 |  NYG | Cam Skattebo | 12 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 3 |  DEN | RJ Harvey | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 4 |  PHI | Tank Bigsby | 14 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 5 |  BUF | James Cook | 25 | 111 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 22.8 |
| 6 |  ARI | Bam Knight | 15 | 80 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 11.8 |
| 7 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | 8 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 61 | 1 | 21.6 |
| 8 |  LAC | Keaton Mitchell | 4 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Average | 11.3 | 47.1 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 22.9 | 0.1 | 12.6 | ||
| Median | 11.0 | 45.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 11.3 | ||
| High | 25 | 111 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 61 | 1 | 22.8 | ||
| Low | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jacory Croskey-Merritt should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jacory Croskey-Merritt has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually produces.
Projected is Jacory Croskey-Merritt's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 3 | SEA | 19 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 4 | IND | 9 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 5 | NYG | 11 | 82 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Croskey-Merritt avg | 13.4 | 47.8 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| Rams RB1 avg | 11.3 | 47.1 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 22.9 | 0.1 | 12.6 | |
| Difference | -2.2 | -0.7 | -0.2 | +2.9 | +2.6 | +14.9 | +0.1 | +3.6 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 11.3 | 40.3 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 7.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Croskey-Merritt averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jacory Croskey-MerrittGood confidence · 7.8 proj ptsOut
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt averages 9.0 PPR points over 5 games (recent-weighted 9.3) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Rams have allowed 12.6 points to RB1s over 8 games (-22% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -16% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.3) is blended in at 29% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -1%: Vegas total 48.5, implied 22.0 points for WAS (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 4.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Wind about 12 mph: hurts passing and kicking.
- QB change: Jayden Daniels is now throwing (6.8 yds/att vs 6.8 earlier), x1.00.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+3%): Opposing starter Trent McDuffie (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Kam Curl (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+1%): Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, which can mean extra looks for Croskey-Merritt.
- Injury report: IR. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 7.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJacory Croskey-Merritt vs the Rams
Prediction for Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 7.6 points for Jacory Croskey-Merritt if playing as a RB1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 9.0 over 5 games, and the Rams have given up 12.6 to RB1s (-22% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored: Wk 1 12.6, Wk 2 5.8, Wk 3 5.3, Wk 4 7.0, Wk 5 14.2. Average 9.0; weighted toward recent games it is 9.0.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Rams allowed 12.6 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -16% adjustment (x0.84).
4. Result. 9.0 x 0.84 = 7.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jacory Croskey-Merritt is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.2 points, leaning on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 11.3 carries, 47.1 rushing yards and 3.6 receptions against the Rams across 8 games.
- The Rams allow 12.6 PPR points to RB1s, -22% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, James Cook (22.8 pts, 25 car, 111 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.6 vs 11.2; car 11.3 vs 9.3; rush yds 47.1 vs 38.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 8, Keaton Mitchell (5.3 pts, 4 car, 6 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.6 vs 13.7; car 11.3 vs 12.3; rush yds 47.1 vs 53.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.3 to 22.8 (median 11.3).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 8 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.