Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB
Washington CommandersIR
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Croskey-Merritt may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Cam Skattebo | 18 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.1 |
| Average | 18.0 | 81.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.1 | ||
| Median | 18.0 | 81.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.1 | ||
| High | 18 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.1 | ||
| Low | 18 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jacory Croskey-Merritt should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jacory Croskey-Merritt has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually produces.
Projected is Jacory Croskey-Merritt's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 3 | SEA | 19 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 4 | IND | 9 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 5 | NYG | 11 | 82 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Croskey-Merritt avg | 13.4 | 47.8 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| Cowboys RB1 avg | 18.0 | 81.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.1 | |
| Difference | +4.6 | +33.2 | +0.6 | -1.4 | -1.0 | -8.0 | +0.0 | +5.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Croskey-Merritt averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJacory Croskey-Merritt vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 9.2 points for Jacory Croskey-Merritt if playing as a RB1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 12.6 over 1 game, and the Cowboys have given up 14.1 to RB1s (-19% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored: Wk 1 12.6. Average 12.6; weighted toward recent games it is 9.7.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Cowboys allowed 14.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is -19%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -5% adjustment (x0.95).
4. Result. 9.7 x 0.95 = 9.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jacory Croskey-Merritt is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.5 points, leaning on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 18.0 carries, 81.0 rushing yards and 0.0 receptions against the Cowboys across 1 game.
- The Cowboys allow 14.1 PPR points to RB1s, -19% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 17 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.