Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB
Washington CommandersIR
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Croskey-Merritt may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 2 |  KC | Kenneth Walker III | 24 | 117 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 23.8 |
| 3 |  HOU | Woody Marks | 5 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 9.1 |
| Average | 17.7 | 92.0 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 28.7 | 0.0 | 22.7 | ||
| Median | 24.0 | 117.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 23.8 | ||
| High | 24 | 144 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 35.3 | ||
| Low | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 9.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jacory Croskey-Merritt should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jacory Croskey-Merritt has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually produces.
Projected is Jacory Croskey-Merritt's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 3 | SEA | 19 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 4 | IND | 9 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 5 | NYG | 11 | 82 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Croskey-Merritt avg | 13.4 | 47.8 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| Colts RB1 avg | 17.7 | 92.0 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 28.7 | 0.0 | 22.7 | |
| Difference | +4.3 | +44.2 | +0.9 | +2.6 | +1.7 | +20.7 | +0.0 | +13.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Croskey-Merritt averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJacory Croskey-Merritt vs the Colts
Prediction for Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 9.6 points for Jacory Croskey-Merritt if playing as a RB1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 7.9 over 3 games, and the Colts have given up 22.7 to RB1s (+48% vs the league average of 15.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored: Wk 1 12.6, Wk 2 5.8, Wk 3 5.3. Average 7.9; weighted toward recent games it is 7.7.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Colts allowed 22.7 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.4, so that is +48%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +24% adjustment (x1.24).
4. Result. 7.7 x 1.24 = 9.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jacory Croskey-Merritt is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.9 points, leaning on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 17.7 carries, 92.0 rushing yards and 2.7 receptions against the Colts across 3 games.
- The Colts allow 22.7 PPR points to RB1s, +48% versus the league average of 15.4 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Derrick Henry (35.3 pts, 24 car, 144 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 22.7 vs 16.4; car 17.7 vs 14.5; rush yds 92.0 vs 66.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Woody Marks (9.1 pts, 5 car, 15 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 22.7 vs 29.5; car 17.7 vs 24.0; rush yds 92.0 vs 130.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.1 to 35.3 (median 23.8).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 3 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.