Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB
Washington CommandersIR
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Croskey-Merritt may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Giants in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Giants in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | 12 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 24.2 |
| 2 |  LA | Kyren Williams | 12 | 85 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 15.7 |
| 3 |  TEN | Tony Pollard | 17 | 74 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13.6 |
| 4 |  ARI | Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 12.9 |
| Average | 12.3 | 60.5 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 18.0 | 0.5 | 16.6 | ||
| Median | 12.0 | 58.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 17.0 | 0.5 | 14.6 | ||
| High | 17 | 85 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 24.2 | ||
| Low | 8 | 41 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 12.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jacory Croskey-Merritt should do vs the GiantsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Giants, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jacory Croskey-Merritt has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Giants opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Giants avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually produces.
Projected is Jacory Croskey-Merritt's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Giants were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 3 | SEA | 19 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 4 | IND | 9 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 5 | NYG | 11 | 82 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Croskey-Merritt avg | 13.4 | 47.8 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| Giants RB1 avg | 12.3 | 60.5 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 18.0 | 0.5 | 16.6 | |
| Difference | -1.2 | +12.7 | +0.1 | +1.9 | +2.3 | +10.0 | +0.5 | +7.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Croskey-Merritt averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJacory Croskey-Merritt vs the Giants
Prediction for Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Giants.
I predict about 7.7 points for Jacory Croskey-Merritt if playing as a RB1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 7.7 over 4 games, and the Giants have given up 16.6 to RB1s (+4% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored: Wk 1 12.6, Wk 2 5.8, Wk 3 5.3, Wk 4 7.0. Average 7.7; weighted toward recent games it is 7.6.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Giants allowed 16.6 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is +4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +2% adjustment (x1.02).
4. Result. 7.6 x 1.02 = 7.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jacory Croskey-Merritt is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.8 points, leaning on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 12.3 carries, 60.5 rushing yards and 3.3 receptions against the Giants across 4 games.
- The Giants allow 16.6 PPR points to RB1s, +4% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Javonte Williams (24.2 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.6 vs 14.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.9 to 24.2 (median 14.6).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 40 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 4 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.