Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB
Washington CommandersIR
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Croskey-Merritt may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the 49ers in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against 49ers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LA | Kyren Williams | 11 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 2 |  MIA | De'Von Achane | 20 | 74 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 3 |  ARI | Jeremiyah Love | 21 | 90 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 21.9 |
| 4 |  DEN | RJ Harvey | 7 | 25 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 19.3 |
| 5 |  SEA | Emanuel Wilson | 20 | 61 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 13.2 |
| Average | 15.8 | 58.2 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 28.2 | 0.2 | 16.4 | ||
| Median | 20.0 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 15.5 | ||
| High | 21 | 90 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 68 | 1 | 21.9 | ||
| Low | 7 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 12.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jacory Croskey-Merritt should do vs the 49ersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the 49ers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jacory Croskey-Merritt has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of 49ers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
49ers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually produces.
Projected is Jacory Croskey-Merritt's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the 49ers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 3 | SEA | 19 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5.3 |
| 4 | IND | 9 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 5 | NYG | 11 | 82 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Croskey-Merritt avg | 13.4 | 47.8 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| 49ers RB1 avg | 15.8 | 58.2 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 28.2 | 0.2 | 16.4 | |
| Difference | +2.4 | +10.4 | +0.0 | +3.8 | +3.6 | +20.2 | +0.2 | +7.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Croskey-Merritt averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJacory Croskey-Merritt vs the 49ers
Prediction for Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the 49ers.
I predict about 9.1 points for Jacory Croskey-Merritt if playing as a RB1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 9.0 over 5 games, and the 49ers have given up 16.4 to RB1s (+2% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored: Wk 1 12.6, Wk 2 5.8, Wk 3 5.3, Wk 4 7.0, Wk 5 14.2. Average 9.0; weighted toward recent games it is 9.0.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the 49ers allowed 16.4 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +2% adjustment (x1.02).
4. Result. 9.0 x 1.02 = 9.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jacory Croskey-Merritt is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.3 points, leaning on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 15.8 carries, 58.2 rushing yards and 4.6 receptions against the 49ers across 5 games.
- The 49ers allow 16.4 PPR points to RB1s, +2% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 15 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, RJ Harvey (7 car, 25 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 15.8 vs 18.0; rush yds 58.2 vs 66.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Jeremiyah Love (90 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rush yds 58.2 vs 50.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.3 to 21.9 (median 15.5).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 5 games (60%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.