Lan Larison
RB
New England Patriots
- Teammate Hunter Henry (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Packers in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Packers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | Aaron Jones | 12 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 2 |  NYJ | Braelon Allen | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 3 |  ATL | Brian Robinson | 10 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.0 |
| 4 |  TB | Sean Tucker | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 5 |  CHI | Roschon Johnson | 5 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 6 |  DAL | Hunter Luepke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 7 |  DET | Sione Vaki | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| 8 |  CAR | Trevor Etienne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Average | 4.6 | 14.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 6.3 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.8 | ||
| High | 12 | 50 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 11.0 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Lan Larison should do vs the PackersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Lan Larison has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Lan Larison will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Lan Larison's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Lan Larison usually produces.
Projected is Lan Larison's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 8 | MIA | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Larison avg | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | |
| Packers RB2 avg | 4.6 | 14.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 6.3 | |
| Difference | +3.6 | +11.9 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +1.9 | +0.0 | +4.5 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 1.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Larison averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Lan LarisonMedium confidence · 2.0 proj pts1/10 start
- Lan Larison averages 1.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 1.6) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Packers have allowed 6.3 points to RB2s over 8 games (+23% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +17% adjustment.
- Game environment +3%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 23.8 points for NE (league avg 22.6); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (48F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Keisean Nixon (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Zaire Franklin (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+0%): Teammate Hunter Henry (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Larison.
- Projection: 2.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreLan Larison vs the Packers
Prediction for Lan Larison
Nobody knows which slot Lan Larison will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 1.9 points for Lan Larison if playing as a RB2. Lan Larison has averaged 1.8 over 2 games, and the Packers have given up 6.3 to RB2s (+23% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Lan Larison scored: Wk 1 2.9, Wk 8 0.6. Average 1.8; weighted toward recent games it is 1.6.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Packers allowed 6.3 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is +23%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +17% adjustment (x1.17).
4. Result. 1.6 x 1.17 = 1.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Lan Larison is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.1 points, leaning on Lan Larison's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 4.6 carries, 14.9 rushing yards and 1.1 receptions against the Packers across 8 games.
- The Packers allow 6.3 PPR points to RB2s, +23% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Brian Robinson (50 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rush yds 14.9 vs 9.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Aaron Jones (12 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 4.6 vs 3.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.1 to 11.0 (median 7.8).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 4 of 8 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.