Matthew Golden
WR
Green Bay Packers▲ Hot
- Teammate Christian Watson (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate MarShawn Lloyd (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Bears in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Tetairoa McMillan | 8 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 2 |  MIN | Jordan Addison | 5 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 3 |  PHI | Makai Lemon | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Garrett Wilson | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| Average | 5.3 | 3.3 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 3.0 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 | ||
| High | 8 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 10.5 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Matthew Golden should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Matthew Golden has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Matthew Golden will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Matthew Golden's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Matthew Golden usually produces.
Projected is Matthew Golden's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 12 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 2 | NYJ | 6 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 3 | ATL | 12 | 5 | 100 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 4 | TB | 7 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 11.7 |
| 5 | CHI | 7 | 6 | 123 | 0 | 20.3 |
| 6 | DAL | 13 | 6 | 104 | 1 | 22.4 |
| 7 | DET | 12 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 8 | CAR | 13 | 7 | 79 | 1 | 20.9 |
| Golden avg | 10.3 | 5.4 | 77.4 | 0.5 | 16.4 | |
| Bears WR2 avg | 5.3 | 3.3 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | |
| Difference | -5.0 | -2.1 | -39.4 | -0.5 | -9.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Golden averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMatthew Golden vs the Bears
Prediction for Matthew Golden
Nobody knows which slot Matthew Golden will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 9.6 points for Matthew Golden if playing as a WR2. Matthew Golden has averaged 14.5 over 4 games, and the Bears have given up 6.5 to WR2s (-26% vs the league average of 8.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Matthew Golden scored: Wk 1 15.5, Wk 2 9.8, Wk 3 21.0, Wk 4 11.7. Average 14.5; weighted toward recent games it is 11.3.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Bears allowed 6.5 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.9, so that is -26%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -15% adjustment (x0.85).
4. Result. 11.3 x 0.85 = 9.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Matthew Golden is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.2 points, leaning on Matthew Golden's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.3 receptions, 38.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Bears across 4 games.
- The Bears allow 6.5 PPR points to WR2s, -26% versus the league average of 8.9 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Tetairoa McMillan (75 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 38.0 vs 25.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.1 to 10.5 (median 5.8).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 4 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.