TreVeyon Henderson
RB
New England PatriotsQ
- Teammate Hunter Henry (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Dolphins in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Dolphins in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Mike Washington Jr. | 7 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 2 |  SF | Kaelon Black | 7 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 3 |  KC | Emmett Johnson | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 4 |  MIN | DeeJay Dallas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.0 |
| 5 |  CIN | Chase Brown | 13 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 7 |  NYJ | Isaiah Davis | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 8 | NE | Corey Kiner | 7 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.8 |
| Average | 5.9 | 23.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 4.2 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | ||
| High | 13 | 41 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 8.4 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How TreVeyon Henderson should do vs the DolphinsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game TreVeyon Henderson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot TreVeyon Henderson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus TreVeyon Henderson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than TreVeyon Henderson usually produces.
Projected is TreVeyon Henderson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PIT | 16 | 76 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.6 |
| 3 | JAX | 8 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 4 | BUF | 14 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 5 | LV | 4 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 6 | NYJ | 7 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3.0 |
| 7 | CHI | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 4.3 |
| Henderson avg | 8.7 | 33.8 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |
| Dolphins RB2 avg | 5.9 | 23.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 4.2 | |
| Difference | -2.8 | -10.3 | -0.2 | -0.0 | +0.2 | +3.9 | +0.0 | -1.4 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 7.6 | 29.8 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 5.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Henderson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · TreVeyon HendersonGood confidence · 5.9 proj pts1/10 start
- TreVeyon Henderson averages 5.6 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 4.9) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Dolphins have allowed 4.2 points to RB2s over 7 games (-17% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -12% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.1) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 5.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreTreVeyon Henderson vs the Dolphins
Prediction for TreVeyon Henderson
Nobody knows which slot TreVeyon Henderson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 5.9 points for TreVeyon Henderson if playing as a RB2. TreVeyon Henderson has averaged 5.6 over 6 games, and the Dolphins have given up 4.2 to RB2s (-17% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. TreVeyon Henderson scored: Wk 2 13.6, Wk 3 3.9, Wk 4 4.2, Wk 5 4.8, Wk 6 3.0, Wk 7 4.3. Average 5.6; weighted toward recent games it is 6.7.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Dolphins allowed 4.2 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is -17%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -12% adjustment (x0.88).
4. Result. 6.7 x 0.88 = 5.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely TreVeyon Henderson is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.9 points, leaning on TreVeyon Henderson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 6.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 5.9 carries, 23.6 rushing yards and 1.0 receptions against the Dolphins across 7 games.
- The Dolphins allow 4.2 PPR points to RB2s, -17% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Chase Brown (13 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 5.9 vs 4.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.7 to 8.4 (median 3.8).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 7 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.