Tyler Shough
QB
New Orleans Saints
This is how QBs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 24 | 40 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 2 |  CAR | Bryce Young | 23 | 36 | 287 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 24.1 |
| 3 |  GB | Jordan Love | 28 | 53 | 312 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.5 |
| Average | 25.0 | 43.0 | 273.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 18.4 | ||
| Median | 24.0 | 40.0 | 287.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.5 | ||
| High | 28 | 53 | 312 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 24.1 | ||
| Low | 23 | 36 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 12.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Tyler Shough should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tyler Shough has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tyler Shough will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tyler Shough's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tyler Shough usually produces.
Projected is Tyler Shough's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 35 | 56 | 410 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 23.2 |
| 2 | BAL | 27 | 34 | 252 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 1 | 22.4 |
| 3 | LV | 29 | 42 | 255 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 23.8 |
| 4 | ATL | 30 | 48 | 286 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 15.9 |
| 5 | MIN | 16 | 25 | 96 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| 6 | NYG | 16 | 30 | 144 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 27.0 |
| 7 | PIT | 30 | 38 | 278 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13.8 |
| Shough avg | 26.1 | 39.0 | 245.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 15.9 | 0.3 | 18.0 | |
| Falcons QB1 avg | 25.0 | 43.0 | 273.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 18.4 | |
| Difference | -1.1 | +4.0 | +27.5 | +0.1 | -0.5 | -1.8 | -14.9 | -0.3 | +0.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Shough averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreTyler Shough vs the Falcons
Prediction for Tyler Shough
Nobody knows which slot Tyler Shough will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 20.4 points for Tyler Shough if playing as a QB1. Tyler Shough has averaged 23.1 over 3 games, and the Falcons have given up 18.4 to QB1s (+7% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tyler Shough scored: Wk 1 23.2, Wk 2 22.4, Wk 3 23.8. Average 23.1; weighted toward recent games it is 19.7.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Falcons allowed 18.4 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +7%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +4% adjustment (x1.04).
4. Result. 19.7 x 1.04 = 20.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tyler Shough is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (20.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.1 points, leaning on Tyler Shough's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 20.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 273.3 passing yards, 2.0 passing TDs and 1.0 rushing yards against the Falcons across 3 games.
- The Falcons allow 18.4 PPR points to QB1s, +7% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 2 of 3 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.5 to 24.1 (median 18.5).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 3 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.