Matthew Hibner
TE
Baltimore Ravens
This is how TEs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Dalton Schultz | 8 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 2 |  DET | Sam LaPorta | 7 | 6 | 52 | 1 | 17.2 |
| 3 |  LAC | Oronde Gadsden II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 |  NE | Hunter Henry | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 5 |  LA | Tyler Higbee | 6 | 5 | 83 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 6 |  LV | Michael Mayer | 9 | 7 | 95 | 0 | 16.5 |
| Average | 6.3 | 4.5 | 54.5 | 0.2 | 11.0 | ||
| Median | 6.5 | 5.0 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 12.3 | ||
| High | 9 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 17.2 | ||
| Low | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Matthew Hibner should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Matthew Hibner has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Matthew Hibner will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Matthew Hibner's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Matthew Hibner usually produces.
Projected is Matthew Hibner's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 3 | DAL | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 10.3 |
| 4 | TEN | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 8 | BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Hibner avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 17.5 | 0.3 | 4.5 | |
| Bills TE1 avg | 6.3 | 4.5 | 54.5 | 0.2 | 11.0 | |
| Difference | +4.8 | +3.3 | +37.0 | -0.1 | +6.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hibner averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMatthew Hibner vs the Bills
Prediction for Matthew Hibner
Nobody knows which slot Matthew Hibner will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 6.4 points for Matthew Hibner if playing as a TE1. Matthew Hibner has averaged 6.0 over 3 games, and the Bills have given up 11.0 to TE1s (+4% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Matthew Hibner scored: Wk 1 2.3, Wk 3 10.3, Wk 4 5.4. Average 6.0; weighted toward recent games it is 6.2.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Bills allowed 11.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 6.2 x 1.03 = 6.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Matthew Hibner is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (6.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.9 points, leaning on Matthew Hibner's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 6.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.5 receptions, 54.5 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs against the Bills across 6 games.
- The Bills allow 11.0 PPR points to TE1s, +4% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, Michael Mayer (16.5 pts, 7 rec, 95 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.0 vs 9.8; rec 4.5 vs 4.0; yds 54.5 vs 46.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Oronde Gadsden II (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.0 vs 13.1; rec 4.5 vs 5.4; yds 54.5 vs 65.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 6 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 17.2 (median 12.3).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 games (17%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.