Denzel Boston
WR
Cleveland BrownsQ
- Quarterback Deshaun Watson is questionable. Watch the status.
- Teammate Harold Fannin Jr. (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Saints in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jameson Williams | 9 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 2 |  BAL | Devontez Walker | 2 | 1 | 47 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 3 |  LV | Cody White | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7.4 |
| 4 |  ATL | Jahan Dotson | 3 | 2 | 54 | 1 | 13.4 |
| 5 |  MIN | Tai Felton | 3 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 6 |  NYG | Charlie Jones | 3 | 2 | 66 | 0 | 8.6 |
| 7 |  PIT | Germie Bernard | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| Average | 4.0 | 2.1 | 38.6 | 0.3 | 7.7 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.0 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 7.4 | ||
| High | 9 | 4 | 66 | 1 | 13.4 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Denzel Boston should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Denzel Boston has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Denzel Boston will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Denzel Boston's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Denzel Boston usually produces.
Projected is Denzel Boston's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 4 | 2 | 59 | 1 | 13.9 |
| 2 | TB | 7 | 5 | 95 | 1 | 20.5 |
| 3 | CAR | 4 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 8.1 |
| 4 | PIT | 7 | 4 | 89 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 5 | NYJ | 7 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 13.6 |
| 6 | BAL | 5 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 7 | TEN | 8 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 8 | PIT | 11 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 9.7 |
| Boston avg | 6.6 | 3.3 | 51.1 | 0.4 | 10.9 | |
| Saints WR2 avg | 4.0 | 2.1 | 38.6 | 0.3 | 7.7 | |
| Difference | -2.6 | -1.1 | -12.6 | -0.1 | -3.1 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 46.8 | 0.3 | 8.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Boston averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Denzel BostonGood confidence · 8.7 proj pts1/10 start
- Denzel Boston averages 10.9 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 9.4) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Saints have allowed 7.7 points to WR2s over 7 games (-12% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -8% adjustment.
- Game environment -2%: Vegas total 42.5, implied 19.8 points for CLE (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Martin Emerson Jr. (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+2%): Teammate Harold Fannin Jr. (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Boston.
- Flag: Quarterback Deshaun Watson is questionable. Watch the status.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 8.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreDenzel Boston vs the Saints
Prediction for Denzel Boston
Nobody knows which slot Denzel Boston will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 8.6 points for Denzel Boston if playing as a WR2. Denzel Boston has averaged 10.9 over 8 games, and the Saints have given up 7.7 to WR2s (-12% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Denzel Boston scored: Wk 1 13.9, Wk 2 20.5, Wk 3 8.1, Wk 4 12.9, Wk 5 13.6, Wk 6 2.5, Wk 7 5.7, Wk 8 9.7. Average 10.9; weighted toward recent games it is 9.4.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Saints allowed 7.7 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -12%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 9.4 x 0.92 = 8.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Denzel Boston is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.6 points, leaning on Denzel Boston's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 2.1 receptions, 38.6 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Saints across 7 games.
- The Saints allow 7.7 PPR points to WR2s, -12% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Jahan Dotson (13.4 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.7 vs 6.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Cody White (4 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 38.6 vs 44.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.7 to 13.4 (median 7.4).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 7 games (29%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.