Antonio Williams
WR
Washington Commanders
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Williams may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | LaJohntay Wester | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 2 |  KC | Rashee Rice | 6 | 4 | 83 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 3 |  HOU | Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| Average | 3.3 | 2.7 | 39.7 | 0.0 | 6.6 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | ||
| High | 6 | 4 | 83 | 0 | 12.3 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Antonio Williams should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Antonio Williams has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Antonio Williams will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Antonio Williams's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Antonio Williams usually produces.
Projected is Antonio Williams's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 | 16.4 |
| 2 | DAL | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 3 | SEA | 4 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 4 | IND | 8 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 5.1 |
| 5 | NYG | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.1 |
| 6 | SF | 4 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 8 | PHI | 7 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 10.4 |
| Williams avg | 4.7 | 3.3 | 37.0 | 0.1 | 7.8 | |
| Colts WR3 avg | 3.3 | 2.7 | 39.7 | 0.0 | 6.6 | |
| Difference | -1.4 | -0.6 | +2.7 | -0.1 | -1.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Williams averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAntonio Williams vs the Colts
Prediction for Antonio Williams
Nobody knows which slot Antonio Williams will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 9.2 points for Antonio Williams if playing as a WR3. Antonio Williams has averaged 8.4 over 3 games, and the Colts have given up 6.6 to WR3s (+45% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Antonio Williams scored: Wk 1 16.4, Wk 2 5.4, Wk 3 3.5. Average 8.4; weighted toward recent games it is 7.5.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Colts allowed 6.6 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +45%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +23% adjustment (x1.23).
4. Result. 7.5 x 1.23 = 9.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Antonio Williams is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.2 points, leaning on Antonio Williams's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 2.7 receptions, 39.7 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Colts across 3 games.
- The Colts allow 6.6 PPR points to WR3s, +45% versus the league average of 4.6 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Rashee Rice (12.3 pts, 83 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 6.6 vs 3.8; yds 39.7 vs 18.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, LaJohntay Wester (15 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 39.7 vs 52.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.5 to 12.3 (median 4.1).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.