Fernando Mendoza
QB
Las Vegas Raiders
This is how QBs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | C.J. Stroud | 26 | 38 | 274 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 2 |  DET | Jared Goff | 26 | 38 | 327 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 29.8 |
| 3 |  LAC | Justin Herbert | 20 | 34 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 4 |  NE | Drake Maye | 22 | 37 | 269 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 54 | 0 | 26.2 |
| 5 |  LA | Matthew Stafford | 40 | 54 | 383 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.3 |
| Average | 26.8 | 40.2 | 295.8 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 18.6 | 0.0 | 22.5 | ||
| Median | 26.0 | 38.0 | 274.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 26.2 | ||
| High | 40 | 54 | 383 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 54 | 0 | 29.8 | ||
| Low | 20 | 34 | 226 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Fernando Mendoza should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Fernando Mendoza has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Fernando Mendoza will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Fernando Mendoza's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Fernando Mendoza usually produces.
Projected is Fernando Mendoza's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NE | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.2 |
| Mendoza avg | 6.0 | 8.0 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | |
| Bills QB1 avg | 26.8 | 40.2 | 295.8 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 18.6 | 0.0 | 22.5 | |
| Difference | +20.8 | +32.2 | +247.8 | +2.6 | +0.4 | +2.4 | +15.6 | +0.0 | +20.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mendoza averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreFernando Mendoza vs the Bills
Prediction for Fernando Mendoza
Nobody knows which slot Fernando Mendoza will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 2.7 points for Fernando Mendoza if playing as a QB1. Fernando Mendoza has averaged 2.2 over 1 game, and the Bills have given up 22.5 to QB1s (+33% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Fernando Mendoza scored: Wk 5 2.2. Average 2.2; weighted toward recent games it is 2.2.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Bills allowed 22.5 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +33%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +21% adjustment (x1.21).
4. Result. 2.2 x 1.21 = 2.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Fernando Mendoza is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.6 points, leaning on Fernando Mendoza's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 295.8 passing yards, 2.6 passing TDs and 18.6 rushing yards against the Bills across 5 games.
- The Bills allow 22.5 PPR points to QB1s, +33% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 4 of 5 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.7 to 29.8 (median 26.2).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 5 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.