Fernando Mendoza
QB
Las Vegas Raiders
This is how QBs have played against the Rams in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Brock Purdy | 25 | 34 | 205 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 21.1 |
| 2 |  NYG | Jameis Winston | 11 | 27 | 111 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 3 |  DEN | Bo Nix | 17 | 34 | 186 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 24.1 |
| 4 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 12 | 27 | 93 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 13.5 |
| 5 |  BUF | Josh Allen | 12 | 19 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 121 | 1 | 30.5 |
| 6 |  ARI | Jacoby Brissett | 24 | 35 | 218 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Average | 16.8 | 29.3 | 170.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 4.7 | 29.7 | 0.3 | 16.5 | ||
| Median | 14.5 | 30.5 | 195.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 17.3 | ||
| High | 25 | 35 | 218 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 121 | 1 | 30.5 | ||
| Low | 11 | 19 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Fernando Mendoza should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Fernando Mendoza has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Fernando Mendoza will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Fernando Mendoza's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Fernando Mendoza usually produces.
Projected is Fernando Mendoza's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NE | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.2 |
| Mendoza avg | 6.0 | 8.0 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | |
| Rams QB1 avg | 16.8 | 29.3 | 170.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 4.7 | 29.7 | 0.3 | 16.5 | |
| Difference | +10.8 | +21.3 | +122.5 | +1.3 | +0.8 | +3.7 | +26.7 | +0.3 | +14.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mendoza averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreFernando Mendoza vs the Rams
Prediction for Fernando Mendoza
Nobody knows which slot Fernando Mendoza will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 2.2 points for Fernando Mendoza if playing as a QB1. Fernando Mendoza has averaged 2.2 over 1 game, and the Rams have given up 16.5 to QB1s (-1% vs the league average of 16.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Fernando Mendoza scored: Wk 5 2.2. Average 2.2; weighted toward recent games it is 2.2.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Rams allowed 16.5 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.7, so that is -1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -1% adjustment (x0.99).
4. Result. 2.2 x 0.99 = 2.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Fernando Mendoza is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.3 points, leaning on Fernando Mendoza's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 170.5 passing yards, 1.3 passing TDs and 29.7 rushing yards against the Rams across 6 games.
- The Rams allow 16.5 PPR points to QB1s, -1% versus the league average of 16.7 (ranked 17 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Josh Allen (30.5 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.5 vs 13.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Bo Nix (24.1 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.5 vs 14.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 6 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.5 to 30.5 (median 17.3).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 80 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 6 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.