Derrick Henry

RB Baltimore Ravens · Wk 3 @ DAL DAL

Chance of 1+ TD

71%

Rank

of 187

Why Henry ranks #4

Derrick Henry has reached 1+ TD in 2 of 2 games this season.
Henry has 4 rushing TDs in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 20.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.57 per game), giving 1.14 per game.
The Cowboys have allowed 0.50 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.63 (-21%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.93 adjustment.
Henry has 0 receiving TDs in 2 games (0.00 per game) on 2.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.06 per game), giving 0.04 per game.
The Cowboys have allowed 0.50 receiving TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.18 (+182%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.40 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x1.11, receiving TDs x1.13): Vegas total 52.5, implied 27.8 points for BAL (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected total rushing TDs + receiving TDs this week: 1.24. That makes the chance of 1+ TD 71%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.24, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	RuTD	ReTD
1	NYG	1	1
2	WAS	0	0
Cowboys avg / game		0.50	0.50
League avg		0.63	0.18

Totals are for every RB the Cowboys faced in each game, not just one player.