David Montgomery

RB Houston Texans · Wk 3 @ IND IND

Chance of 1+ TD

65%

Rank

of 187

Why Montgomery ranks #6

David Montgomery has reached 1+ TD in 1 of 2 games this season.
Montgomery has 2 rushing TDs in 2 games (1.00 per game) on 13.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.37 per game), giving 0.62 per game.
The Colts have allowed 1.50 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.63 (+138%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.40 adjustment.
Montgomery has 1 receiving TDs in 2 games (0.50 per game) on 2.5 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.08 per game), giving 0.25 per game.
The Colts have allowed 0.00 receiving TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.18 (-100%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.70 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x1.01, receiving TDs x1.04): Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.0 points for HOU (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected total rushing TDs + receiving TDs this week: 1.06. That makes the chance of 1+ TD 65%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.06, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	RuTD	ReTD
1	BAL	3	0
2	KC	0	0
Colts avg / game		1.50	0.00
League avg		0.63	0.18

Totals are for every RB the Colts faced in each game, not just one player.