Jonathan Taylor

RB Indianapolis Colts · Wk 3 vs HOU HOU

Chance of 1+ TD

58%

Rank

#11

of 187

Why Taylor ranks #11

Jonathan Taylor has reached 1+ TD in 2 of 2 games this season.
Taylor has 4 rushing TDs in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 21.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.61 per game), giving 1.17 per game.
The Texans have allowed 0.00 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.63 (-100%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.70 adjustment.
Taylor has 0 receiving TDs in 2 games (0.00 per game) on 4.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.13 per game), giving 0.08 per game.
The Texans have allowed 0.00 receiving TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.18 (-100%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.70 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x0.96, receiving TDs x0.98): Vegas total 43.5, implied 20.5 points for IND (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected total rushing TDs + receiving TDs this week: 0.86. That makes the chance of 1+ TD 58%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.86, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	RuTD	ReTD
1	BUF	0	0
2	CIN	0	0
Texans avg / game		0.00	0.00
League avg		0.63	0.18

Totals are for every RB the Texans faced in each game, not just one player.