D'Andre Swift

RB Chicago Bears · Wk 3 vs PHI PHI

Chance of 1+ TD

56%

Rank

#13

of 187

Why Swift ranks #13

D'Andre Swift has reached 1+ TD in 1 of 2 games this season.
Swift has 3 rushing TDs in 2 games (1.50 per game) on 17.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.48 per game), giving 0.89 per game.
The Eagles have allowed 0.50 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.63 (-21%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.93 adjustment.
Swift has 0 receiving TDs in 2 games (0.00 per game) on 3.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.10 per game), giving 0.06 per game.
The Eagles have allowed 0.00 receiving TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.18 (-100%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.70 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x0.95, receiving TDs x0.97): Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.5 points for CHI (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (66F, 6 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected total rushing TDs + receiving TDs this week: 0.83. That makes the chance of 1+ TD 56%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.83, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	RuTD	ReTD
1	WAS	1	0
2	TEN	0	0
Eagles avg / game		0.50	0.00
League avg		0.63	0.18

Totals are for every RB the Eagles faced in each game, not just one player.