Nico Collins

WR Houston Texans · Wk 3 @ IND IND

Chance of 1+ TD

56%

Rank

#14

of 187

Why Collins ranks #14

Nico Collins has reached 1+ TD in 1 of 1 game this season.
Collins has 0 rushing TDs in 1 game (0.00 per game) on 1.0 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (0.00 per game), giving 0.00 per game.
The Colts have allowed 0.00 rushing TDs per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.00 (+0%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.00 adjustment.
Collins has 1 receiving TDs in 1 game (1.00 per game) on 10.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical WR at this workload produces (0.51 per game), giving 0.64 per game.
The Colts have allowed 1.50 receiving TDs per game to WRs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.90 (+66%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.22 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x1.01, receiving TDs x1.04): Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.0 points for HOU (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected total rushing TDs + receiving TDs this week: 0.82. That makes the chance of 1+ TD 56%.
Small sample: only 1 game so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to WRs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.82, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Opp	Car	RuTD	Tgt	Rec	ReTD
1	BUF	1	0	10	7	1
Average		1.0	0.0	10.0	7.0	1.0

Wk	Offense	RuTD	ReTD
1	BAL	0	1
2	KC	0	2
Colts avg / game		0.00	1.50
League avg		0.00	0.90

Totals are for every WR the Colts faced in each game, not just one player.