Kenneth Walker III

RB Kansas City Chiefs · Wk 3 @ MIA MIA

Chance of 1+ TD

75%

Rank

of 187

Why Walker ranks #2

Kenneth Walker III has reached 1+ TD in 1 of 2 games this season.
Walker has 1 rushing TDs in 2 games (0.50 per game) on 23.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.67 per game), giving 0.60 per game.
The Dolphins have allowed 1.00 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.63 (+59%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.20 adjustment.
Walker has 1 receiving TDs in 2 games (0.50 per game) on 8.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.26 per game), giving 0.36 per game.
The Dolphins have allowed 1.00 receiving TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.18 (+464%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.40 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x1.19, receiving TDs x1.07): Vegas total 45.5, implied 28.5 points for KC (league avg 22.5); Favored by 11.5: leaning run-heavy late; Rain likely (0.7 mm, 49% chance): teams run more, fewer big passes.
Expected total rushing TDs + receiving TDs this week: 1.39. That makes the chance of 1+ TD 75%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.39, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	RuTD	ReTD
1	LV	0	2
2	SF	2	0
Dolphins avg / game		1.00	1.00
League avg		0.63	0.18

Totals are for every RB the Dolphins faced in each game, not just one player.