Jahmyr Gibbs

RB Detroit Lions · Wk 3 vs NYJ NYJ

Chance of 1+ TD

68%

Rank

of 187

Why Gibbs ranks #5

Jahmyr Gibbs has reached 1+ TD in 2 of 2 games this season.
Gibbs has 2 rushing TDs in 2 games (1.00 per game) on 22.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.64 per game), giving 0.78 per game.
The Jets have allowed 0.00 rushing TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.63 (-100%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.70 adjustment.
Gibbs has 1 receiving TDs in 2 games (0.50 per game) on 6.5 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical RB at this workload produces (0.21 per game), giving 0.33 per game.
The Jets have allowed 0.50 receiving TDs per game to RBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.18 (+182%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.40 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x1.13, receiving TDs x1.11): Vegas total 48.5, implied 27.5 points for DET (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected total rushing TDs + receiving TDs this week: 1.13. That makes the chance of 1+ TD 68%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to RBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.13, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	RuTD	ReTD
1	TEN	0	0
2	GB	0	1
Jets avg / game		0.00	0.50
League avg		0.63	0.18

Totals are for every RB the Jets faced in each game, not just one player.