Caleb Williams

QB Chicago Bears · Wk 3 vs PHI PHI

Chance of 1+ TD

58%

Rank

#10

of 187

Why Williams ranks #10

Caleb Williams has reached 1+ TD in 1 of 2 games this season.
Williams has 2 rushing TDs in 2 games (1.00 per game) on 7.5 carries per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (0.42 per game), giving 0.65 per game.
The Eagles have allowed 1.00 rushing TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.24 (+313%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.40 adjustment.
Williams has 0 receiving TDs in 2 games (0.00 per game) on 0.0 targets per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical QB at this workload produces (0.00 per game), giving 0.00 per game.
The Eagles have allowed 0.00 receiving TDs per game to QBs over 2 games, versus a league average of 0.00 (+0%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.00 adjustment.
Game environment (rushing TDs x0.95, receiving TDs x0.97): Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.5 points for CHI (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 3.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (66F, 6 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected total rushing TDs + receiving TDs this week: 0.87. That makes the chance of 1+ TD 58%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to QBs divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 0.87, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 1+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Wk	Offense	RuTD	ReTD
1	WAS	0	0
2	TEN	2	0
Eagles avg / game		1.00	0.00
League avg		0.24	0.00

Totals are for every QB the Eagles faced in each game, not just one player.