‹ Field goals
Ka'imi Fairbairn
K Houston Texans · Wk 3 @ 
IND
Chance of 2+ field goals
63%Rank
#8
of 32
Why Fairbairn ranks #8
- Ka'imi Fairbairn has reached 2+ field goals in 1 of 2 games this season.
- Fairbairn has 3 field goals in 2 games (1.50 per game) on 2.0 attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical K at this workload produces (1.67 per game), giving 1.60 per game.
- The Colts have allowed 3.00 field goals per game to Ks over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.63 (+84%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.28 adjustment.
- Game environment (field goals x1.05): Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.0 points for HOU (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Expected field goals this week: 2.15. That makes the chance of 2+ field goals 63%.
- Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to Ks divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.
Chance: expected 2.15, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Ka'imi Fairbairn's games
| Wk | Opp | FGA | FGM | 40+ | Lng |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 58 |
| 2 | CIN | 3 | 2 | 1 | 45 |
| Average | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 51.5 | |
What the Colts allow to Ks
| Wk | Offense | FGM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | 2 |
| 2 |  KC | 4 |
| Colts avg / game | 3.00 | |
| League avg | 1.63 | |
Totals are for every K the Colts faced in each game, not just one player.