Daniel Carlson

K New Orleans Saints · Wk 3 vs LV

Chance of 2+ field goals

56%

Rank

#11

of 32

Why Carlson ranks #11

Daniel Carlson has reached 2+ field goals in 1 of 2 games this season.
Carlson has 4 field goals in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 2.5 attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical K at this workload produces (2.09 per game), giving 2.05 per game.
The Raiders have allowed 1.00 field goals per game to Ks over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.63 (-39%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.87 adjustment.
Game environment (field goals x1.05): Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.3 points for NO (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
Expected field goals this week: 1.88. That makes the chance of 2+ field goals 56%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to Ks divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.88, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every K the Raiders faced in each game, not just one player.