Chad Ryland

K Arizona Cardinals · Wk 3 @ SF

Chance of 2+ field goals

51%

Rank

#15

of 32

Why Ryland ranks #15

Chad Ryland has reached 2+ field goals in 1 of 2 games this season.
Ryland has 4 field goals in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 2.5 attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical K at this workload produces (2.09 per game), giving 2.05 per game.
The 49ers have allowed 1.00 field goals per game to Ks over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.63 (-39%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.87 adjustment.
Game environment (field goals x0.96): Vegas total 47.5, implied 19.5 points for ARI (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 8.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Wind about 12 mph: hurts passing and kicking.
Expected field goals this week: 1.71. That makes the chance of 2+ field goals 51%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to Ks divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 1.71, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every K the 49ers faced in each game, not just one player.