‹ Field goals
Will Reichard
K Minnesota Vikings · Wk 3 @ 
TB
Chance of 2+ field goals
71%Rank
#4
of 32
Why Reichard ranks #4
- Will Reichard has reached 2+ field goals in 1 of 2 games this season.
- Reichard has 4 field goals in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 2.0 attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical K at this workload produces (1.67 per game), giving 1.80 per game.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 3.50 field goals per game to Ks over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.63 (+115%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.38 adjustment.
- Game environment (field goals x1.00): Vegas total 42.5, implied 22.5 points for MIN (league avg 22.5); Mild weather (87F, 7 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Expected field goals this week: 2.49. That makes the chance of 2+ field goals 71%.
- Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to Ks divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.
Chance: expected 2.49, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Will Reichard's games
| Wk | Opp | FGA | FGM | 40+ | Lng |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 1 | 1 | 0 | 38 |
| 2 | CHI | 3 | 3 | 1 | 49 |
| Average | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 43.5 | |
What the Buccaneers allow to Ks
| Wk | Offense | FGM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | 4 |
| 2 |  CLE | 3 |
| Buccaneers avg / game | 3.50 | |
| League avg | 1.63 | |
Totals are for every K the Buccaneers faced in each game, not just one player.