Cam Little

K Jacksonville Jaguars · Wk 3 vs NE

Chance of 2+ field goals

61%

Rank

of 32

Why Little ranks #9

Cam Little has reached 2+ field goals in 2 of 2 games this season.
Little has 4 field goals in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 2.5 attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical K at this workload produces (2.09 per game), giving 2.05 per game.
The Patriots have allowed 1.50 field goals per game to Ks over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.63 (-8%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x0.97 adjustment.
Game environment (field goals x1.02): Vegas total 45.5, implied 24.3 points for JAX (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (86F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
Expected field goals this week: 2.04. That makes the chance of 2+ field goals 61%.
Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.

How the math works

Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.

Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to Ks divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.

Chance: expected 2.04, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.

It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.

Totals are for every K the Patriots faced in each game, not just one player.