‹ Field goals
Spencer Shrader
K Indianapolis Colts · Wk 3 vs 
HOU
Chance of 2+ field goals
63%Rank
#7
of 32
Why Shrader ranks #7
- Spencer Shrader has reached 2+ field goals in 1 of 2 games this season.
- Shrader has 4 field goals in 2 games (2.00 per game) on 2.0 attempts per game. With a small sample, that is blended with what a typical K at this workload produces (1.67 per game), giving 1.80 per game.
- The Texans have allowed 2.50 field goals per game to Ks over 2 games, versus a league average of 1.63 (+53%). Only 33% of that gap is applied because the sample is small, a x1.18 adjustment.
- Game environment (field goals x1.01): Vegas total 43.5, implied 20.5 points for IND (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Expected field goals this week: 2.15. That makes the chance of 2+ field goals 63%.
- Small sample: only 2 games so far, so treat this as directional.
How the math works
Rate: (actual total + 3 games of the typical rate) divided by (games played + 3). This keeps one or two games from swinging the estimate.
Matchup: the opponent's allowed rate to Ks divided by the league average, with only n/(n+4) of the gap applied and limited to x0.7 to x1.4.
Chance: expected 2.15, converted with a Poisson count model to the chance of 2+.
It does not know about injuries, snap counts, game script or weather.
Spencer Shrader's games
| Wk | Opp | FGA | FGM | 40+ | Lng |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 58 |
| 2 | KC | 3 | 3 | 2 | 49 |
| Average | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 53.5 | |
What the Texans allow to Ks
| Wk | Offense | FGM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | 3 |
| 2 |  CIN | 2 |
| Texans avg / game | 2.50 | |
| League avg | 1.63 | |
Totals are for every K the Texans faced in each game, not just one player.